Decesion Tree

In: Business and Management

Submitted By leijx14
Words 555
Pages 3
Let’s suppose the prediction for the sales demand that Ann Queen derived from other comparable events is accurate. It is relatively easy to figure out the possible DVDs that can be sold with expected probability if we draw a decision tree.

From the above tree graph, we can tell that the total possibility to sell 4000 DVDs in Saturday and Sunday is 25%. If Ann Queen’s expectation about the possibility of DVD sold is accurate and nothing new information will be available after Friday’s and Saturday’s performance, we can calculate expected numbers of DVD that should be produced based on numbers of DVDs that expected to be sold. Because we do not want to over produce DVDs than we can sell. We want to produce exactly the same number of DVDs as what we can sell. Under this philosophy, since we can calculate the numbers of DVDs that expected to be sold is 3500. The number of DVDs that we need to produce is also 3500, which we believe can maximize our expected monetary value.

Suppose Ann Queen decided to produce 3500 DVDs. We can calculate the EMV to be:
0.5*[2000*(14-3)-3500*3]+0.25[3500*(14-6)]+0.25*[3500*(14-6)]-15000=$4750

If for some reason Ann Queen can get exclusive information about how many DVDs she can sell exactly on Saturday and Sunday, I will suggest her to produce exact number of DVDs that can be sold without any over production. In this case, we have four scenarios to calculate profits:

First scenario: Saturday 1000 and Sunday 1000
Total profit: 2000x8-15000=$1000
Under this scenario, the information is worth (3500-2000)x3=$4500
Explain: Since we do not have to over produce by 1500 DVDs, we can save production cost for $3/each.

Second scenario: Saturday 1000 and Sunday 3000
Total profit: 4000x8-15000=$17000
Under this scenario, the information is worth 17000-4750=$12250
Explain: profit difference between with and without information…...

Similar Documents

Tree

...There once was a tree and its name was greg. There once was a tree and its name was greg. There once was a tree and its name was greg. There once was a tree and its name was greg. There once was a tree and its name was greg. There once was a tree and its name was greg. There once was a tree and its name was greg. There once was a tree and its name was greg. There once was a tree and its name was greg. There once was a tree and its name was greg. There once was a tree and its name was greg. There once was a tree and its name was greg. There once was a tree and its name was greg. There once was a tree and its name was greg. There once was a tree and its name was greg. There once was a tree and its name was greg. There once was a tree and its name was greg. There once was a tree and its name was greg. There once was a tree and its name was greg. There once was a tree and its name was greg. There once was a tree and its name was greg. There once was a tree and its name was greg. There once was a tree and its name was greg. There once was a tree and its name was greg. There once was a tree and its name was greg. There once was a tree and its name was greg. There once was a tree and its name was greg. There once was a tree and its name was greg. There once was a tree and its name was greg. There once was a tree and its name was greg. There once was a tree and its name was greg. There once was a tree and its name was greg. There once was a tree and its......

Words: 1501 - Pages: 7

Tree

...When Trees start out in the wild, their life begins in an area where that type of tree is adapted to and tolerant of the conditions of that particular site. As the trees mature, the site conditions may change. People may modify the land by building houses or office buildings. The building of these structures most times take away an assortment of brush and small plants, thus altering the natural landscape.. Some trees are tolerant of these man made conditions like Oaks and Elms. The types that are not tolerant and cannot adapt only have one choice, and that is too die. (9) Another situation that may occur is the planting of young trees in an urban site. At this young age, it allows its self to become more tolerant to an environment. But, sometimes this tolerance level is not taken into consideration. Trees may be picked just because of their color or size only. This may not be the best situation, and the tree usually dies. In that case, there will be another chance to put a more tolerant tree in that area. The trees that do survive in this condition are in so much shock after being taken out of its tolerant environment, and being put in a none tolerant environment, that their limits are being pushed to the edge. When this happens, the result will be poor performance, and a non-attractive tree. These trees that are not at their peak condition are more prone to contract diseases and attract unwanted visiting insects. The trees that have problems with diseases and insects......

Words: 338 - Pages: 2

Tree

...a hill in the woods. They were discussing their hopes and dreams when the first tree said, "Someday I hope to be a treasure chest. I could be filled with gold, silver and precious gems. I could be decorated with intricate carving and everyone would see the beauity". The second tree said, "Someday I will be a mighty ship. I will take Kings and Queens across the waters and sail to the corners of the world. Everyone will feel safe in me because of the strength of my hull". Finally, the third tree said, "I want to grow to be the tallest and straightest tree in the forest. People will see me on top of the hill and look up to my branches, and think of the heavens and God and how close to them I am reaching. I will be the greatest tree of all time and people will always remember me". After a few years of praying that their dreams would come true, a group of woodsmen came upon the trees. When one came to the first tree he said, "This looks like s strong tree, I think I should be able to sell the wood to a carpenter".... and he began cutting it down. The tree was happy. because he knew that the carpenter would make him into a treasure chest. At the second tree a woodsman said, "This looks like a strong tree, I should be able to sell it to the shipyard." The second tree was happy because he knew he was on his way to becoming a mighty ship. When the woodsmen came upon the third tree, the tree was frigtened because he knew that if they cut him down his dreams would not......

Words: 704 - Pages: 3

Word Tree

...There is a tall, rooted cherry blossom tree nearby a beautiful stream of running water in a small remote village in Vietnam. It has been there since 1992. A Vietnamese lady planted the tree dedicating it as a reminiscent to her deceased daughter. This tree she planted developed over the years. It grew more and more each year. It started as a little seed to an eight-foot tree. The branches grew to be so long that it wept to where it barely touched the water. The branches bundled with white cherry blossoms blooming everywhere. The tree beamed brightly no matter if it was day or night. The tree was the most beautiful tree in the entire village for the next 12 years. In 2004, a catastrophe had hit this remote village. A never-ending storm had hit the coast of Vietnam. Rolling sounds of thunder and streams of rain continuously occurred every day. It was soon devoured by the gusting wind blowing away all of the little cherry blossoms. It blew away the life and ambiance the tree once had. Not too long after this storm had chaos broke out in the village where a westernized country tried to take over the village. Battles occurred everywhere in the village with the echo of firearms and weapons reverberating ever minute. Not too soon did battles occur where this tree was. The battle left almost all of the tree’s branches to be broken and discarded. After these incidents the tree no longer intensified and illuminated like how it used to be. The tree had lost its life, intensity, and......

Words: 626 - Pages: 3

Forbidden Tree

...Forbidden Tree Callie Franklin HU300 Forbidden Tree As a child, bedtime was the best time of day. Mommy and daddy would look on the bookshelf and find the best exciting stories ever. The majority were old biblical stories that passes from generation to generation. Adam and Eve was the most popular story read to me quite often, a great story. An awesome story line that describes a relationship of betrayal between man, God, and the consequences of disobedience. Adam and Eve contains a countermyth with a countersymbol of the Garden (Janaro, Altshuler, 2011, pg. 47). This story is a great way to help understand whatever is asked of us to do from God or an authority figure, may be for our own good. And it can teach us how to make better choices in life. In The Art of Being Human: The Humanities as a Technique for living, it states that many myth scholars believe that the archetype of the Golden Age had its origins in the biblical account of the Garden, the earthly paradise Adam and Eve called home until they were cast out for eating the forbidden fruit from the tree of knowledge (Janaro, Altshuler, 2011, pg. 47). Adam and Eve is a great story that every child should read about. In the beginning God created the heaven, earth, and man. God created Adam and then created Eve from one of Adam’s ribs. They both were in the Garden of Eden and had everything they wanted. But God told them they could eat from any tree they wanted, but not the tree in the middle of the garden....

Words: 829 - Pages: 4

Banyan Tree

...its services or change marketing strategy.it is also important to check out the corporation’s financial error and handle it in time. As investors, they can realize how well the corporation done within a year and what the corporation will do in the next year and what is their strategic planning when they go through the entire financial analysis report. Then depend on their own experience and knowledge, they will design where they go. It may be make them stay on or leave out or increase their capital into same corporation because of corporation‘s profit and bonus keep going up or redistributed their capital into different corporation to reduce their investment risk. * Banyan tree holidays limited company 2. Firm, industry, and environment 2.1. Descriptions of firm and its management Ban Yan Tree Holidays Limited is a corporation which mainly operates spas, hotels and restores business. It had cost to 30 hotels and restores, over 60 spas and 80 galleries separately distributed in china, Indonesia, India, Korea, Mexico, Thailand, Vietnam ,Maldives United Arab Emirates and Seychelles. And that each restores had at least 50 to 100 rooms to meet the market demand. Board of Directors HO KWONPING CHIA CHEE MING TIMOTHY Lead Independent Director Executive Chairman ARIEL P VERA FANG AI......

Words: 2653 - Pages: 11

Tree Thinking

...Basic Tree Thinking Assessment David A. Baum, Stacey DeWitt Smith, Samuel S. Donovan This quiz includes a number of multiple-choice questions you can use to test yourself on your ability to accurately interpret evolutionary trees. Insofar as real biological examples have been used they are accurate based on current knowledge. 1) By reference to the tree above, which of the following is an accurate statement of relationships? a) A green alga is more closely related to a red alga than to a moss b) A green alga is more closely related to a moss than to a red alga c) A green alga is equally related to a red alga and a moss d) A green alga is related to a red alga, but is not related to a moss 2) By reference to the tree above, which of the following is an accurate statement of relationships? a) A crocodile is more closely related to a lizard than to a bird b) A crocodile is more closely related to a bird than to a lizard c) A crocodile is equally related to a lizard and a bird d) A crocodile is related to a lizard, but is not related to a bird 3) By reference to the tree above, which of the following is an accurate statement of relationships? a) A seal is more closely related to a horse than to a whale b) A seal is more closely related to a whale than to a horse c) A seal is equally related to a horse and a whale d) A seal is related to a whale, but is not related to a horse 4) Which of the five marks in the tree above corresponds to the most recent common ancestor......

Words: 1474 - Pages: 6

Tree Decision

...Value of Information in Decision Trees 19 19.1 VALUE OF INFORMATION Useful concept for Evaluating potential information-gathering activities Comparing importance of multiple uncertainties 19.2 EXPECTED VALUE OF PERFECT INFORMATION Several computational methods Flipping tree, moving an event set of branches, appropriate for any decision tree Payoff table, most appropriate only for single-stage tree (one set of uncertain outcomes with no subsequent decisions) Expected improvement All three methods start by determining Expected Value Under Uncertainty, EVUU, which is the expected value of the optimal strategy without any additional information. To use these methods, you need (a) a model of your decision problem under uncertainty with payoffs and probabilities and (b) a willingness to summarize a payoff distribution (payoffs with associated probabilities) using expected value. The methods can be modified to use certain equivalents for a decision maker who is not risk neutral. 224 Chapter 19 Value of Information in Decision Trees Expected Value of Perfect Information, Reordered Tree Figure 19.1 Structure, Cash Flows, Endpoint Values, and Probabilities 0.5 High Sales $400,000 $700,000 0.3 Medium Sales $100,000 -$300,000 $400,000 0.2 Low Sales 1 $100,000 -$200,000 Introduce Product Don't Introduce $0 $0 Figure 19.2 Rollback Expected Values 0.5 High Sales $400,000 Introduce Product $190,000 0.3 Medium Sales $100,000 0.2 Low Sales 1 $190,000......

Words: 2788 - Pages: 12

The Backyard Tree

...This tree that I want to write about stands proud n tall in the garden in the backyard and is visible from my kitchen window. It has been my constant companion since the time we rented this beautiful house, here in Auckland, almost six months back. When we came here it was the beginning of summers, and this tree was lush green and its spiky fruits, the size of small plums, hung in twos, suspended by a thin vein, looking like small chandeliers, shyly peeping from behind the curtain of leaves. It was a sight to behold, as many birds seem to move in and out of it making the sweetest music as they went about their day. It gave me a lot of pleasure to watch it and suddenly I would not feel lonely and so far away from home. As months went by, I heard autumn was fast approaching and somewhere that made me sad. I somehow could not bear the thought of seeing my companion all barren, but I could not have been more wrong. As autumn approached, the tree transformed into a golden yellow bouquet, its fruits too took on a golden hue as I watched mesmerized. All my sadness put to rest, making me realize that the statement,' a thing of beauty is a joy forever', holds so much water. It did not stop at that. It slowly changed into a riot of fiery red and orange, almost looking ablaze, and then as days passed, one by one it started shedding its leaves. They lie there, at its feet, in a heap. I could not bring myself to sweep them away, as they lie huddled together in this cold and rainy......

Words: 431 - Pages: 2

The Lemon Tree

...The Lemon Tree is a publicly traded company which has 2,900 employees and operates out of Tallahassee, Florida. It produces and packages for resale products using lemon, including toiletries, foodstuffs, bathroom cleaning products and paint and nail polish removers. All of its products incorporates the use of a highly secret chemical formula derived from fresh lemons, grown on trees right on the grounds of the company.  Only 3 people in the company have access to the secret formula, the CEO, Smitty Smiles, the head of Research, Paul Peel, and the chemist, Peter Dragon, also known as "Puff." Puff has a drug problem. Now, granted, it was in his past, and he has passed 3 out of the past 5 drug tests performed by the company.  The two failed tests were chalked up to a "fluke" as a result of some chemicals he'd been working on.  Puff successfully completed a drug rehab program in 1985, which the company paid for. His doctor at the time announced that he was cured.  Paul has recommended that Puff be fired after both of the failed drug tests, but Puff fought the recommendations through the HR ADA committee, and won both times. One of the other members of a different branch of the research team, Jackie Paper, is good friends with Puff. Jackie underwent a sex change operation 5 years ago, and is now a woman, although she was a man when she was first hired in the company 8 years ago. She is also Asian, and considers herself, as a female minority, in a protected class which is......

Words: 844 - Pages: 4

Maple Tree

...The Maple Tree Druid horoscope for Maple (The DailyHoroscope by Comitic) Druid horscope for Maple. The Maple is known as the luckiest of trees. It embodies a happy spirit because it represents very desirable qualities, such as success, wealth, and general prosperity. This is a very positive and constructive sign. It is only natural, then, that Maple people are always pleasant to be around because they are cheerful, joyful, and active. These dynamic people are quite adventurous and always seek out excitement. Even when a Maple Tree person isn't the most gorgeous one in the room, he or she can easily compensate for it with an outrageous, interesting, and outstanding personality. Maples are known to be offbeat, extravagant, and even a bit bizarre. They are always aware of all the new trends, social customs, and the most recent discoveries in the world around them. On any given day they are involved or considering any number of interesting and exciting projects. However, they rarely implement any of their daring ideas. Maples prefer to watch others achieve their goals. Maple people have irrepressible energy; they are simply restless! They are interested in too many things at once. Sometimes Maples feel that if they stop even for a moment, they will miss out on something very important. Despite their daring personalities, Maple people are not extremely courageous. The only reason they decides to take a risk is because Maples have a very low sense of danger. ...

Words: 432 - Pages: 2

Light Tree

...a light-tree in a wavelength-routed optical network. A light-tree is a point-to-multipoint generalizat i o n o f a lightpath. A lightpath is a point-to-point all-optical wavelength channel connecti n g a t r a n s m i t t e r a t a s o u r c e n o d e t o a receiver a t a d e s t i n a t i o n n o d e . L i g h t p a t h communication can significantly reduce the number o f hops (or lightpaths) a packet has t o traverse; and this reduction can, in turn, significantly improve t h e network’s t h r o u g h p u t . We extend the lightpath concept by incorporating an optical multicasting capability at the r o u t i n g nodes i n order t o increase t h e logical connectivity o f t h e n e t w o r k a n d f u r t h e r decrease its hop distance. We refer t o such a point-to-multipoint extension as a light-tree. Light-trees can n o t only provide improved performance f o r unicast traffic, b u t they naturally can better support multicast traffic and broadcast traffic. In this study, w e shall concentrate o n the application and advantages o f light-trees t o unicast and broadcast traffic. We f o r m u l a t e t h e light-tree-based virtual t o p o l o g y design p r o b l e m as an o p t i m i z a t i o n problem w i t h one o f t w o possible objective functions: f o r a given traffic matrix, (i) minimize the network-wide average packet hop distance, or (ii) minimize the t o t a l number o f transceivers i n t h e network. We demonstrate t h a t an o p t i m u m light-tree-based......

Words: 6430 - Pages: 26

Tree Planting

...Training Program Civic Welfare Training Services “CAPSULE PROJECT PROPOSAL 1” Title: Tree Planting Activity Theme: “Kabataan Sagip Kalikasan” Proponent: BSMT 11–A2 Duration: 22nd of December 2015 (1400H-1600H) Venue: Brgy. Alos (Alaminos City, Pangasinan) OBJECTIVES: * To help fight global warming and combat air pollution. * To make the world a better place for the next generation. * To make the surroundings green, pleasant to look at, and to have a fresh air. * To help save the earth from constant illegal logging. * To lessen mother earth’s distress. BENEFICIARIES: The next generation and future leaders. More specifically, the community of Alaminos City, Pangasinan. COST: Materials | Quantity | Price | Total Price | Seedlings | 100 pcs. | ₱ 15.00 | ₱ 1,500.00 | Garden Trowel | 50 pcs. | ₱ 50.00 | ₱ 2,500.00 | Pail | 3 pcs. | ₱ 100.00 | ₱ 300.00 | 5 Gallon Water | 1 jug | ₱ 40.00 | ₱ 40.00 | Paper Cups | 1 Pack | ₱ 55.00 | ₱ 55.00 | OVERALL TOTAL: ₱ 4, 395.00 | PROCEDURE OF OPERATION: DATE & TIME | ACTIVITY | DESCRIPTION | November 13-15, 2015 | Permission and Approval | Ask the permission and approval of Barangay Officials to conduct the said activity on the said date. | November 16,2015 - December 16, 2015 | 1 Month Recruitment | Encourage atleast 50 youth volunteers to participate in the tree planting activity. Through social media. | December 17-20, 2015 | Fund Collection |......

Words: 764 - Pages: 4

Tree Values

...FINA 461 Section 1 | “Tree Values” Case Report | Huong Nguyen | 10/7/2010 | Section 1 – Executive Summary This report analyzes the case “Tree Values” to find an optimal way for Mr. Smith to manage his forestland and harvest the crop trees. The fundamental idea in this report is based on the concept of present value. A number of options are analyzed and the one with highest present value of pay off is considered. Questions 9, 10, and 11 give Mr. Smith 3 options: * Option 1: Harvest all crop trees now and receive $8,160 * Option 2: Let the forest grow without thinning, then harvest all crop trees 60 years from now and receive $537,962.01 at harvesting, equivalent to $28,800.08 now * Option 3: Thin and manage the forest, then harvest all crop trees 50 years from now and receive $670,033.56 at harvesting, equivalent to $58,429.42 now Based on the present value of the money received at harvesting, it is highly recommended that Mr. Smith should choose option 3. Furthermore, provided Mr. Smith decides to thin and manage his forest, in case he needs money soon to use for other purposes, he can harvest all of his crop trees at the 40th year to receive $410,608.68 at harvesting, equivalent to $58,325.19 at present, instead of waiting for 10 more years. This is because the present value of money received at the 40th year is just a little ($104.23) less than that of money received at the 50th year. Section 2 – Analysis Question 1 In order to choose the best......

Words: 3365 - Pages: 14

Tree God

...TREE GOD MOTTO: My motto is to help people, plants, animals and birds to live a happy and healthy life without polluting the environment but save more for the future and make it brighter. NOTE: Without tree there is no life. A mother gives us life by giving us birth and a tree is even greater than a mother as it gives us birth every day, every second to numerous living beings in this earth. IDEA: The idea about my plan is regarding a social service that is helpful to the environment in reducing pollution in the atmosphere by planting saplings and making sure that they grow into big and health trees. It is important for me to mention that this is totally a non-profitable organization and the main motto is to give life to birds and animals as trees are considered to be a shelter to living beings. This organization is named as, ‘Tree God’. This name is inspired because a tree gives us life every second and everyday just as God does. Without trees, there is no life on Mother Earth. Plant trees to save the life of all living beings and mother earth. Save your lungs. Do not pollute the environment. If you do, this is what you will go through... Without a tree it is not possible for a human being to even survive for even a second as trees breathe in carbon dioxide that we release and breathe out oxygen that we inhale. This oxygen is very essential to human beings or any animal. The beauty about a tree is that, it absorbs poison that we......

Words: 1091 - Pages: 5

Barbie: Superheroína del Videojuego (2017) 6.3/10 | 战争技术战士 | 최고의 요리비결.E3833.181211.720p-NEXT - 토렌트 한국시사/교양