In: Business and Management

Submitted By lynnstefanie
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Vietnam: risk assessment Sovereign Currency Banking Political Economic Country risk risk sector risk structure risk risk risk

Sovereign risk

Positive: Although the budget deficit will widen in 2012, rapid nominal economic growth and the recent rise in Vietnam's foreign-exchange reserves will support the fiscal position. Moreover, much of the government's external borrowing has been provided on a concessional basis.

Currency risk

Stable: In recent months the slowing rate of consumer price inflation has led to an easing of downward pressure on the dong, while the decline in the net foreign asset position of the country's banks has paused.

Banking sector risk

Stable: The rapid pace of credit expansion in the past few years has raised concerns over the potential for a sharp increase in non-performing loans (NPLs). There are also worries about the accuracy of official data on NPLs.

Political risk

The Communist Party of Vietnam exerts a tight grip on power, ensuring a high degree of political stability. Rows over land leases are emerging as a cause of popular unrest but are unlikely to threaten the party's hold power.

Economic structure risk

Lacklustre growth in private consumption will depress imports in 2012, but the trade deficit will expand sharply once domestic demand recovers from 2013. Workers' remittances will continue to support the current account.

Vietnam economy: The government announces pro-growth measures

June 19 (Economist Intelligence Unit) -- The Vietnamese government is accelerating moves to help the economy out of its current slowdown, with a fresh focus on assisting credit-starved small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Other measures to boost…...

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